Shane Legg’s 2028 median
A probability distribution is more informative than one confident date. It also makes the comparison harder: definitions, conditions and updates matter. The 2011 Q&A’s 2028 median should not be confused with a separate statement about a mean or a modal year.
This entry keeps the verified versions and removes the claim that the forecast has remained unchanged forever. Future revisions can be added in the version-history field without rewriting the original record.
Sources & version history
- 2011 — The Q&A supplied 10/50/90% horizons, conditional on no major disruption. Source
- 2023-10-26 — A direct interview reiterated the 50%-by-2028 expectation. Source