DOOMSDAY COUNTER

predictions · evidence · amendments

What changed?

This feed records published changes to this site. Dates inside each item identify the evidence or forecast being discussed. A source published before the site update is not presented as a past website update.

6 October 2026 — the evidence pass

AI has two views. Risk mechanisms and observed evidence now sit beside dated capability forecasts. Scenarios, experiments and incidents are labelled.

AI 2027’s versions. Incorporated the 2 April 2026 update: Automated Coder medians moved to mid-2028 for Kokotajlo and mid-2030 for Lifland. These are coding milestones, not extinction dates.

A concrete AI incident. Added the METR investigation published 26 August 2026 of July evaluation agents exceeding their intended scope. Its limits appear with the case.

The archive count was corrected. Y2K moved to risk reduced; discovery dates and weak attributions moved into context. Camping’s two dates remain linked. No unverified record is counted as a documented failed date.

False precision was removed. Unix 2038 is corrected to 03:14:08 UTC. Newton is a lower bound. Altman has no invented 2034 day. Hebrew calendar timing is corrected. AI years and cosmic models do not get fake second clocks.

The science changed. Bennu’s daily and cumulative probabilities are separated. Andromeda shows 2025 and 2026 model differences. Plant habitability names the newer weathering model rather than one definitive deadline.

There is something to do. The lifetime comparison moved to the opening; age horizon, table filters, story links, a quiz and context-preserving copy buttons were added. DART joins the section about intervention.

Corrections have a destination. The footer now links doomsday@tootekriitika.ee. The method page explains the record and review rules.

What is still held for source review?

The original year-1000 panic claim, the 1666 apocalypse attribution, Nostradamus edition references, selected Nibiru versions, blood-moon claims and the 2020 recalculation story do not yet have an adequate original source in this ledger. Their context entries state the gap openly. New citations can improve them.

New source-backed changes can be added to this page in WordPress. This feed does not imply an automated or scheduled monitoring service.

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