predictions · evidence · amendments
A useful reason to return is a change in what we know. These notes explain a result, why it matters and what remains to be checked. The original source’s publication date is shown separately from the date we checked it.
Research highlighted here may predate this website. A new note is not a claim that the underlying science was published today. Follow the evidence RSS feed or read the website change log.
WMO’s 26 October outlook warns of heat and changing rainfall as El Niño strengthens. The 3.8°C figure concerns a regional Pacific ocean anomaly, not global warming. Seasonal probabilities guide preparation; they do not name the day of an individual flood or drought. Read the source and regional limits.
Source published · Checked · Next editorial review
METR’s 22 October report describes an external stress test of OpenAI’s historical internal monitoring. OpenAI reported patches, which the evaluators had not independently assessed. The publication date is October; the exercise ran in July–August. Read the original report.
Source published · Checked · Next editorial review
What changed: research reported by NASA on 6 March 2026 found that DART’s 2022 impact altered the Didymos–Dimorphos system’s heliocentric orbital period by about 0.15 seconds. Earlier results measured the much larger change in the moonlet’s orbit around its partner. Read NASA’s explanation and link to the Science Advances study.
Why it matters: tiny changes in a future hazardous object’s motion could accumulate over time. The test system was not threatening Earth; this result does not mean DART removed all asteroid risk.
What comes next: ESA’s 7 October 2026 Hera update describes planned November–December observations to establish the asteroids’ state after impact. New measurements of Dimorphos’s mass, shape and motion would help explain the deflection.
Source published · Checked · Next editorial review
Three evidence triggers to follow. Checked 16 October 2026; this is an editorial watch list, not a live monitoring feed.
Hera’s first detection of Didymos is published. Next come confirmed rendezvous and close-up measurements; the planned observing sequence is not a completed result.
Next review trigger: ESA confirmation of rendezvous, followed by resolved imagery and published measurements of Dimorphos’s mass, shape, spin and orbit.
Source published · Checked · Next editorial review
The 22 October pilot found historical monitoring gaps. Reported fixes still need independent follow-up. Read the dated findings and their scope.
Next review trigger: An independent retest of the reported fixes, with tested system version, access, coverage and remaining limitations disclosed.
Source published · Checked · Next editorial review
The last checked statement sets the Clock at 85 seconds to midnight on 27 January 2026. We will assess the next published statement’s setting and stated reasons; a symbolic change is not an extinction deadline.
Next review trigger: An official Bulletin announcement of the next setting, or an official event notice establishing its announcement date.
Checked · Next editorial review